SMM October 30 News:
Guangdong Region:
Premiums and discounts in the region bottomed out WoW, but the increase was limited. Continuously declining inventory was a key factor supporting the rebound in premiums, but record-high copper prices capped the rebound. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums and discounts between Shanghai and Guangdong was 100 yuan/mt (Guangdong higher), a relatively small difference that left no room for arbitrage. According to SMM statistics, total warehouse inventory in Guangdong reached 19,300 mt as of Thursday, down 2,800 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 8,700 mt, down 130 mt WoW. Specifically: Warehouse arrivals this week were 8,700 mt/week, down 3,000 mt/week WoW, well below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Affected by smelter production cuts and exports, arrivals continued to decrease. Warehouse withdrawals were 11,500 mt/week, down 4,500 mt/week WoW, below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Record-high copper prices fueled strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream, with only purchasing as needed maintained, leading to a significant drop in withdrawals.
Looking ahead to next week, nearby smelters are expected to continue production cuts and maintenance, so arrivals are expected to decline further. On downstream consumption: High copper prices are expected to curb consumption, with consumption expected to increase only slightly next week. Therefore, we believe next week will see reduced supply and slightly higher demand, with weekly inventory expected to decrease slightly and spot premiums likely to increase slightly.
(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
